Updated : Monday November 5 , 2012 10:52:42 AM
The candidates are chasing each other through eight of the most competitive states, as US national and state-level data show Obama with a slim yet potentially decisive edge in the quest for the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
The fight over every vote came as Obama led Romney 48 percent to 45 percent in an Oct. 31-Nov. 3 national poll conducted by the Pew Research Center, a survey that was deadlocked at 47 percent each a week ago. Polls conducted by NBC News with the Wall Street Journal and ABC News with the Washington Post also showed movement for the president in recent days.
State Polls
In weekend polls in Ohio and Iowa, two of the most hard- fought states, the president held a slight advantage, suggesting the race will turn on which candidate does the better job of turning out his own supporters.
“Don’t wait” to vote, Obama urged a mostly black crowd of 13,500 voters packed into Cincinnati, Ohio’s Fifth Third Arena last night. “Who do you trust?” Obama asked the crowd, which shouted back “You!” Saying he knows what “real change” is, the president added: “I delivered it -- I’ve got the scars to prove it.”
Romney, pressing to expand his potential routes to victory, made his first appearance in more than a month in Pennsylvania - - a state that has favored Obama in polls until recently. Elsewhere, the movement in public sentiment signaled gains for Obama.
In Ohio, a Columbus Dispatch poll showed Obama holds a 50 percent lead over Romney’s 48 percent, within the mail survey’s 2.2 percentage point error margin among 1,501 likely voters. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Nov. 3 showed Obama led Romney 51 percent to 45 percent in the state, outside the survey’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
In Iowa, a Des Moines Register poll released the same day found Obama leading Romney, 47 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. While top strategists for both campaigns predicted victory, Romney betrayed slightly less conviction, telling voters in Cleveland, Ohio yesterday that an Obama win was “possible -- but not likely.”
National polls indicated a slight enthusiasm advantage among likely voters for the president, with ABC saying 69 percent of likely Obama voters were very enthusiastic, compared with 62 percent of Romney’s, and Pew saying 39 percent of likely Obama voters support him strongly, compared with 33 percent of Romney’s.
The Republican’s late Pennsylvania push came as early- voting returns showed the former Massachusetts governor will start tomorrow lagging in several of the most competitive states. Obama’s advantage is especially strong in Nevada and Iowa, while Romney has maintained an edge in Colorado. Both campaigns put their spin on the numbers, with Obama’s camp arguing they have built insurmountable leads and Romney’s countering that they are positioned to obliterate any advantage on Election Day.
In Nevada, where the equivalent of 72 percent of the total 2008 vote has been cast, registered Democrats have completed 43.9 percent of ballots, Republicans 37 percent and independents 19.1 percent, state data shows. In a sign that both sides believe the state is trending toward Obama, neither he nor Romney visited during the final weekend of campaigning. In Iowa, more than 613,000 people had cast ballots through Nov. 2, according to the secretary of state’s office, representing 39.8 percent of the total vote, if as many people participate as did in 2008. Registered Democrats have cast 42.6 percent of the ballots, compared with 32.3 percent by Republicans and 25 percent by independents.
Republicans have a slim edge in Colorado’s early voting, according to the secretary of state’s office. Of the vote turned in through Nov. 3, 36.9 percent is from registered Republicans, while Democrats represent 34.6 percent and independents 27.4 percent. About 68 percent of the total 2008 vote there has already been cast. More than 4.4 million Floridians cast early and absentee ballots as of Nov. 3, according to the Florida State Department. Democratic voters cast 43 percent, while Republicans cast 39 percent.
Nationally, almost 30 million people have cast ballots, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. More than a third of the total electorate is expected to vote early.
In Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party has the early-vote edge. Still, Obama’s campaign is buoyed by evidence that early turnout is strong in Ohio counties that backed him in 2008. Two of those, Franklin and Cuyahoga -- the most populous counties in the state -- had through yesterday achieved 88 percent of the early vote they recorded four years ago when Obama won, according to data from the elections project and the county elections boards. Early voting will continue through today.
At the same time, some smaller Republican-leaning counties carried by Obama’s 2008 rival Arizona Senator John McCain -- including Warren in the southwest of the state and Washington in the southeast -- have already outpaced their early voting total of four years ago. Both candidates were trying to appeal to the vast majority of voters who have not yet cast a ballot.
The candidates are chasing each other through eight of the most competitive states, as US national and state-level data show Obama with a slim yet potentially decisive edge in the quest for the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
The fight over every vote came as Obama led Romney 48 percent to 45 percent in an Oct. 31-Nov. 3 national poll conducted by the Pew Research Center, a survey that was deadlocked at 47 percent each a week ago. Polls conducted by NBC News with the Wall Street Journal and ABC News with the Washington Post also showed movement for the president in recent days.
State Polls
In weekend polls in Ohio and Iowa, two of the most hard- fought states, the president held a slight advantage, suggesting the race will turn on which candidate does the better job of turning out his own supporters.
“Don’t wait” to vote, Obama urged a mostly black crowd of 13,500 voters packed into Cincinnati, Ohio’s Fifth Third Arena last night. “Who do you trust?” Obama asked the crowd, which shouted back “You!” Saying he knows what “real change” is, the president added: “I delivered it -- I’ve got the scars to prove it.”
Romney, pressing to expand his potential routes to victory, made his first appearance in more than a month in Pennsylvania - - a state that has favored Obama in polls until recently. Elsewhere, the movement in public sentiment signaled gains for Obama.
In Ohio, a Columbus Dispatch poll showed Obama holds a 50 percent lead over Romney’s 48 percent, within the mail survey’s 2.2 percentage point error margin among 1,501 likely voters. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Nov. 3 showed Obama led Romney 51 percent to 45 percent in the state, outside the survey’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
In Iowa, a Des Moines Register poll released the same day found Obama leading Romney, 47 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. While top strategists for both campaigns predicted victory, Romney betrayed slightly less conviction, telling voters in Cleveland, Ohio yesterday that an Obama win was “possible -- but not likely.”
National polls indicated a slight enthusiasm advantage among likely voters for the president, with ABC saying 69 percent of likely Obama voters were very enthusiastic, compared with 62 percent of Romney’s, and Pew saying 39 percent of likely Obama voters support him strongly, compared with 33 percent of Romney’s.
The Republican’s late Pennsylvania push came as early- voting returns showed the former Massachusetts governor will start tomorrow lagging in several of the most competitive states. Obama’s advantage is especially strong in Nevada and Iowa, while Romney has maintained an edge in Colorado. Both campaigns put their spin on the numbers, with Obama’s camp arguing they have built insurmountable leads and Romney’s countering that they are positioned to obliterate any advantage on Election Day.
In Nevada, where the equivalent of 72 percent of the total 2008 vote has been cast, registered Democrats have completed 43.9 percent of ballots, Republicans 37 percent and independents 19.1 percent, state data shows. In a sign that both sides believe the state is trending toward Obama, neither he nor Romney visited during the final weekend of campaigning. In Iowa, more than 613,000 people had cast ballots through Nov. 2, according to the secretary of state’s office, representing 39.8 percent of the total vote, if as many people participate as did in 2008. Registered Democrats have cast 42.6 percent of the ballots, compared with 32.3 percent by Republicans and 25 percent by independents.
Republicans have a slim edge in Colorado’s early voting, according to the secretary of state’s office. Of the vote turned in through Nov. 3, 36.9 percent is from registered Republicans, while Democrats represent 34.6 percent and independents 27.4 percent. About 68 percent of the total 2008 vote there has already been cast. More than 4.4 million Floridians cast early and absentee ballots as of Nov. 3, according to the Florida State Department. Democratic voters cast 43 percent, while Republicans cast 39 percent.
Nationally, almost 30 million people have cast ballots, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. More than a third of the total electorate is expected to vote early.
In Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party has the early-vote edge. Still, Obama’s campaign is buoyed by evidence that early turnout is strong in Ohio counties that backed him in 2008. Two of those, Franklin and Cuyahoga -- the most populous counties in the state -- had through yesterday achieved 88 percent of the early vote they recorded four years ago when Obama won, according to data from the elections project and the county elections boards. Early voting will continue through today.
At the same time, some smaller Republican-leaning counties carried by Obama’s 2008 rival Arizona Senator John McCain -- including Warren in the southwest of the state and Washington in the southeast -- have already outpaced their early voting total of four years ago. Both candidates were trying to appeal to the vast majority of voters who have not yet cast a ballot.
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